Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

A new world order

Oh how the mighty have fallen. According to a Bloomberg report, Chinese banks have toppled Citi from the top of the league tables based on market value.

Citi, which had long occupied the top position based on market cap, has been superseded by Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank and Bank of China. The three biggest Chinese banks are valued at $608 billion, says Bloomberg, compared to $496 billion for Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Citi.

ICBC leads the tables with a market value of $277 billion, $82 billion more than Bank of America, which is in second place, followed by HSBC in third place ahead of China Construction Bank and Wells Fargo, according to Bloomberg data. Citi is now in seventh position. Yet, it was only five years ago that 13 American banks featured in the top 20 banks by market cap.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Lunches, trains and automobiles

Are we on the brink of a recession? Well even if we aren't, it seems like the markets are talking themselves into one, and it seems I am not alone in thinking that the market is panicking itself into a recession. Christmas sales haven't been what they used to be for retailers (although I think far too much weight is put on analysts' expectations especially when supermarket giants like Tesco still manage to record a 3.1% rise in Christmas trading, even though it was below analysts' expectations of 4%), and based on December figures the UK housing market is at its worst since the recession of 1992.

But retail earnings and housing slumps aside, some say a true sign that we are in a recession has to be the demise or otherwise of the business lunch and the number of people taking taxis.

I was just discussing this over a business lunch today, which lasted for a couple of hours - always a good sign that the days of the two-hour business junket are far from over. And judging by the busy lunchtime crowd that was in the restaurant, businesses are not battening down the hatches quite yet.

So it is official, while consumer confidence may be ebbing, all important business confidence is hanging on by the skin of its teeth, and those that work in the markets say, despite the credit crunch, trading volumes have not declined.

I feel another round of outsourcing coming on. The credit crunch may not mark the end of the business lunch, not yet anyway, but will it prompt banks to more seriously consider what is core to their business and what it is not and outsource the non- value-added menial tasks to high volume processors that benefit from economies of scale?