The 'superbanks' of tomorrow

In recent months with bank stocks plummeting and the aftershocks of the US credit crunch continuing to resound in global markets, no one would be surprised if the outlook for the banking sector going forward was dire.

Yet, while our faith and confidence in banks may be at an all-time low, McKinsey believes banks will double their profits and revenues by 2016.

It predicts that global banking revenues will grow, on average, by a not too unhealthy 7.5% a year from 2006 to 2016, compared with an average of 8% a year from 2000 to 2006 (and 12.6% from 2002 to 2006). Although revenues are expected to slow somewhat, McKinsey says they will still exceed current forecasts for GDP growth by more than one-half of a percentage point a year over the 10 years from 2006 to 2016.

"Consequently, we expect the industry to generate $5.7 trillion in revenues and $1.8 trillion in after-tax profits by 2016 —more than twice the levels at the end of 2006."

How can this be, you may ask with household names such as Citi having to grovel to Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds to help balance their balance sheets after significant write-downs in the current sub-prime debacle.

Well it seems part of the reason for McKinsey's rather bullish predictions for the banking sector is the growth in demand for banking and financial services in emerging markets, which it says will contribute roughly half of the absolute growth in new banking revenues from 2006 to 2016, while North America and Western Europe will account for 25% and 20%, respectively.

Russia, says McKinsey will be one of the fastest-growing large markets in the next few years, alongside China. More importantly perhaps, India is predicted to overtake Central and Eastern Europe. Those segments that are likely to be profitable include retail banking and investment banking, trading and securities services, which McKinsey says will provide a larger relative share of bank revenues.

But perhaps the biggest driver that may support McKinsey's predictions is the prospect of more consolidation in the banking sector to create "superbanks".

"Over the next five years, we expect a new wave of consolidation to speed the emergence of 'superbanks,' with more than $500 billion in market capitalization," says McKinsey.

Today, global banking is the least concentrated industry says McKinsey with the top 20 banks accounting for less than 40% of its global market cap, compared with an average of 67% in other key industries. Interestingly, those banks that are in the Top 20 today, are not guaranteed to be the 'superbanks' of tomorrow. "Even the current top European and US banks aren’t guaranteed to achieve 'superbank' status with their existing portfolios," says McKinsey.